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One-third of Man’s entire influence on climate since the Industrial Revolution has occurred since February 1997.Yet the 225 months since then show no global warming at all.In a rational scientific discourse, those who had advocated extreme measures to prevent global warming would now be withdrawing and calmly rethinking their hypotheses.However, this is not a rational scientific discourse.With this month’s RSS (Remote Sensing Systems satellite) temperature record, the Pause beats last month’s record and now stands at 18 years 9 months.' As the faithful gather around their capering shamans in Paris for the New Superstition’s annual festival of worship, the Pause lengthens yet again.One-third of Man’s entire influence on climate since the Industrial Revolution has occurred since February 1997.And the graph does not mean there is no such thing as global warming. And yes, the start-date for the Pause has been inching forward, though just a little more slowly than the end-date, which is why the Pause continues on average to lengthen.
The start date is not cherry-picked: it is calculated.The trend lines measure what has occurred: they do not predict what will occur.The Pause – politically useful though it may be to all who wish that the “official” scientific community would remember its duty of skepticism – is far less important than the growing discrepancy between the predictions of the general-circulation models and observed reality.Now, almost three years later, the Pause is almost three years longer.It is worth understanding just how surprised the modelers ought to be by the persistence of the Pause.